Australia green iron exports target India, Southeast Asia

The report pointed to Australian government projections that India’s iron ore imports could reach 50 million tonnes by 2031. It also said Jindal Steel has signaled interest in importing DRI and HBI as domestic scrap and other metallics remain scarce, suggesting a potential commercial lane for Australian green iron if pricing and logistics work.

For Australia’s big miners, the story is not just about finding a new customer. China’s slowing steel sector is threatening the long-standing export model that has underpinned earnings at BHP, Rio Tinto and Vale-linked iron ore markets, while the pivot toward processed iron products could support pricing power if demand from India and Southeast Asia materializes.

The market backdrop is already turning less favorable for raw ore. Iron ore prices have fallen to their lowest since September 2024 on weak China demand prospects and rising supply, while steel and iron ore futures have also come under pressure. That makes the case for value-added exports stronger, even if commercial shipments of green iron to India are still only a possibility rather than an established trade flow.

Investors will be watching whether Australia can translate policy interest and industrial decarbonization into long-term contracts, and whether Chinese weakness persists enough to accelerate the reorientation of trade. The next test is whether miners, steelmakers and governments can agree on commercial terms for low-emissions iron products before the current slump in iron ore demand deepens.