Berkshire Hathaway warns as SPY nears record highs

That split tells the story of a market that is still being driven by a handful of powerful themes even as caution builds underneath. The S&P 500 ETF has rebounded to trade above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and Adalytica’s U.S. equity trade snapshot shows “Greed” sentiment at 83 with “Extreme Greed” awareness at 100, a combination that often leaves little room for disappointment if earnings, growth or Federal Reserve expectations wobble.

Bonds are sending a different message. TLT, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, fell to $82.25 on July 31 from $84.24 two days earlier and remains below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, reflecting ongoing pressure on duration assets even as stocks climb. That divergence matters for portfolio allocation because it suggests investors are still leaning into equities while showing less conviction that long-dated government debt will provide easy shelter if growth slows.

For Berkshire, the market backdrop also reinforces why Buffett’s caution carries weight. The company’s stock has been volatile this year, with its relative strength oscillating from oversold territory in March to firmer momentum in late July, but the broader issue is not the chart — it is the message. When one of the market’s most conservative capital allocators is signaling restraint while indexes hover near highs, traders tend to read that as a warning that valuations and liquidity may be more fragile than they look.

The next test is whether this rally can keep expanding beyond a narrow leadership set or whether risk appetite starts to crack. With investors already focused on Federal Reserve communication, earnings and Treasury yields, any further wobble in bonds or signs of slowing growth could make Berkshire’s warning feel less like prudence and more like timing.