Brent Near $100 Limits China Crude Imports

That is a notable change from the concern earlier this year that a rebound in Chinese buying could trigger another leg higher in benchmark prices. China’s imports already rose for a second straight month in August to 8.93 million barrels a day, customs data showed, but Goldman said refiners are still prioritizing cost control after a period of very low imports in June and amid record freight rates.

The bank’s view suggests Chinese refiners are responding less to headline demand and more to delivered costs, especially as shorter voyages from non-Middle Eastern suppliers can protect margins. Vortexa analyst Emma Li said state-held refiners have favored cheaper supply routes and quicker response times, helping them preserve refining margins while Asian product cracks remain elevated.

For investors, the implication is that Brent’s next major move may depend less on a China-led import surge and more on whether geopolitical shocks hit physical supply, particularly in the Middle East. Goldman said the bigger upside risk to its crude forecast is a possible escalation of strikes on Mideast crude production and export infrastructure, not stronger Chinese imports.

The backdrop is still one of unusually firm oil prices. Brent futures were last around $96 to $100 a barrel in recent trading, while U.S. crude and Brent both remain far above their 200-day moving averages, even as recent price action has cooled from earlier spikes. Adalytica’s oil trade signals show sentiment in greed territory, but awareness at extreme fear, reflecting a market that is still pricing tight supply while remaining wary of a sudden reversal.

If Brent stays near current levels, China is likely to remain disciplined on imports rather than chase barrels higher, leaving oil producers and shipping routes in focus heading into the fourth quarter.