Central Asia Shapes China Investment Terms

Experts speaking in Almaty on Oct. 20 said China’s engagement is no longer dominated by commodity projects. Djoomart Otorbaev, a former Kyrgyz prime minister, said accumulated Chinese foreign direct investment in Central Asia reached $56 billion by mid-2025, nearly doubling over the past decade. He said the sector mix has changed materially: raw materials accounted for about 68% of Chinese investment a decade ago, but that share has fallen to 54%, while manufacturing now makes up 22% and energy, including renewables, 12%.

For investors, that evolution points to a broader re-rating of Central Asia’s economic model. More manufacturing and energy investment can deepen supply chains, support industrial policy and reduce dependence on volatile commodity export income. It also suggests better prospects for infrastructure, logistics and power projects that can unlock follow-on private capital.

Kazakhstan remains the largest recipient of Chinese investment, but Uzbekistan is emerging as a more aggressive competitor for capital, according to Otorbaev. That competition is likely to pressure governments across the region to improve investment rules, borrowing discipline and project execution, especially as Chinese firms become more selective and demand clearer returns.

The new balance of power is not purely economic. Evan A. Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Endowment warned that intensifying U.S.-China rivalry is “securitizing everything,” from capital flows to technology and data, making it harder for Central Asian states to keep diversified partnerships. In other words, the region may have more bargaining power than before, but less room to maneuver if Washington and Beijing force sharper geopolitical choices.

That creates a mixed outlook. The bull case is that Central Asia turns China’s capital into higher-value industrial capacity and a more resilient growth model. The bear case is that rising great-power rivalry narrows financing options and turns even commercial projects into strategic assets subject to political pressure. For now, the dominant story is that Central Asia is no longer just a destination for Chinese money — it is helping set the terms of how that money is used.