China missile launchers outnumber US and Russia

For investors, the implication is that the strategic competition between the US and China is becoming more capital-intensive and more persistent. A larger Chinese nuclear and missile footprint increases pressure on the Pentagon to fund missile defense, survivable deterrents, command-and-control systems and space-based surveillance. That has long been supportive for defense contractors tied to strategic systems, missile warning and hardened infrastructure, even as it raises the risk of more volatile policy and procurement cycles.

The numbers behind the buildout are striking. SIPRI estimates China’s warhead stockpile has more than doubled under Xi Jinping to 620 by January, with projections of 1,500 by 2035. That would still trail the US and Russia in total warheads, but it narrows the gap sharply. The more immediate concern is the launcher base: if more silos are being paired with nuclear-capable missiles, China’s second-strike capacity becomes more credible, and that changes the deterrence calculus in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

The expansion also arrives as Trump is pressing for any new arms control talks with Russia to include China, a demand Beijing has repeatedly resisted. The White House has also signaled it wants to re-open US nuclear testing on a “like-for-like” basis, a move experts warn could further erode arms control guardrails. In parallel, Australia and other middle powers are warning that the post-1945 order is fraying, a sign that the broader geopolitical backdrop is shifting toward more open great-power competition.

For defense stocks, the long-term read-through is positive for companies exposed to strategic deterrence, missile systems and nuclear modernization, including Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and RTX. Their shares have already reflected that theme in recent months, but the latest Chinese data keeps the investment case intact: the deterrence cycle is not ending soon, and the US is unlikely to reduce spending while Beijing continues to expand its arsenal.

The bear case is that this becomes a more destabilizing arms race, with higher risks of testing, countermeasures and export-control escalation. But the market’s base case is likely to remain unchanged for now: rising strategic tension means higher defense budgets, more procurement urgency and a longer runway for firms tied to nuclear and missile programs.