Dimon Warns Against Buying Long Treasuries

That backdrop helps explain why the bond market is sending mixed signals. The 10-year to two-year spread stands around 36 basis points, showing the curve has re-steepened from deep inversion but is still far from a clean endorsement of a growth-led easing cycle. Long-duration bond funds are under pressure: TLT has fallen about 19% over the past 30 days in the Adalytica snapshot, with its proprietary trade signal showing “Extreme Fear” even as awareness of the trade remains elevated. The fund’s 50-day average sits above the current price, and its RSI readings point to a technically oversold market, a sign that selling has been persistent enough to push sentiment to the point where bargain hunters may be tempted — but not yet enough to clear the macro overhang.

Dimon’s warning also carries weight because he is speaking from inside one of the world’s most important fixed-income franchises. JPMorgan’s latest quarterly results showed robust profits and, by extension, healthy activity across markets, including debt capital markets where issuance remains strong. That activity is part of the same story: governments and companies are still able to sell bonds, but often only by paying up for funding as investors demand more yield to absorb duration and credit risk. Moody’s has flagged increased defaults in some segments, while sovereign borrowers such as Honduras have tapped markets at relatively high coupons, underscoring that access to financing is still available but not cheap.

For investors, the call is less about one CEO’s macro view than about positioning. If long yields stay near current levels or move higher, long-duration Treasuries and funds such as TLT could keep lagging despite any short-term relief rallies. If growth slows sharply and the Fed is forced to cut faster than expected, those same bonds could rebound meaningfully because their prices are highly sensitive to rate changes. The bull case for owning them is straightforward: duration offers convexity if recession risk rises. The bear case, which Dimon is clearly leaning into, is that the market is underestimating the persistence of deficits, refinancing needs and term premium.

The broader message is that the bond market is no longer trading as if low inflation and near-zero rates are the baseline. Investors are being asked to price a world in which the cost of money stays materially higher than in the last cycle, and that shifts the balance of power toward cash, short maturities and active duration management. If Dimon is right, long bonds are still vulnerable; if he is wrong, the upside for duration will likely come only after a sharper economic slowdown than the market has yet priced in.