Gold prices at Pegadaian moved higher on Thursday as world bullion climbed to its strongest level in more than two months, with investors leaning into bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates and keep real yields under pressure.
Gold Prices Rise at Pegadaian on Fed Cut Bets
That matters because lower policy rates typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, while a softer dollar can make the metal more attractive in local-currency terms. The move also comes as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.697%, only slightly above the 10-year minus 2-year spread of 0.48 percentage point, a backdrop that still points to expectations for easing rather than a new round of tightening.
Sentiment IndicatorsⓘProprietary · adalytica.com · August 14, 2026
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In the domestic market, the latest jump has widened the gap between products. On Aug. 13, SJC gold bars rose by 800,000 rupiah per tael, while gold rings fell by 300,000 rupiah, underscoring how local premiums and resale demand can move independently even when global bullion is firm.
The global rally has been sharp. Gold futures traded around $4,377.2 an ounce on Aug. 14, after touching $4,408.9 two days earlier, and GLD, the largest gold-backed ETF, closed at $398.96 on Aug. 13 after briefly reaching $404.92. Conventional technical indicators point to sustained strength, with GLD’s 14-day RSI at 71.2 and gold futures’ RSI at 76.1, levels that suggest the market is overbought but still in an uptrend.
Adalytica’s Gold Fear & Greed Index remains in “Extreme Greed” at 87, even after easing 13 points over the past week, showing that investor appetite is still elevated. That supports gold miners and bullion-linked funds, but it also raises the risk of volatility if the dollar rebounds or Treasury yields climb ahead of the next inflation read.
The next catalyst is the August U.S. inflation data and any shift in rate-cut pricing. If CPI stays tame, gold and local retail prices at Pegadaian could extend gains; if it surprises higher, the recent surge may cool quickly.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Gold buyers in Indonesia | ▲Higher paper gains | ▼Pay more at Pegadaian |
| Gold miners and bullion ETFs | ▲Stronger prices | ▼Overbought pullback risk |
| SJC bars | ▲Rising premiums and demand | ▼Weak ring-price spread |
| U.S. dollar and Treasury bulls | ▲Potential rebound from oversold move | ▼Softer real-yield backdrop |
