Goldman sees U.S. housing stuck through 2027

That is the real economic punchline: this is no longer just a housing affordability problem, it is a balance-sheet divide. Goldman expects 30-year mortgage rates to slip to 6.4% by the end of 2027, but that still leaves affordability historically stretched after rates climbed to roughly 7.4%, or 140 basis points above their February trough. With prices forecast to rise just 0.8% in 2027 after similarly muted gains in 2025 and 2026, owners are not getting the usual appreciation tailwind, and buyers are not getting meaningful relief.

The market consequence is a two-speed America. Homeowners who refinanced in 2020 and 2021 are sitting on cheap debt and substantial equity, while younger households face high financing costs, thin inventory and rising barriers to entry. Goldman’s call lands squarely on the split inside the millennial cohort: older millennials, now the highest-earning buyers with a median household income of $132,700 in 2024, are turning into move-up owners, while younger millennials are still getting squeezed out. The median first-time homebuyer is now 40, the oldest on record.

That divide has huge implications for investors. The beneficiaries are the homeowners, move-up buyers, builders with pricing power and long-duration assets tied to rent and shelter inflation. The losers are first-time buyers, rent-sensitive consumers and sectors that depend on household formation accelerating. It also helps explain why homebuilder ETFs have been volatile rather than collapsing outright: builders can still find demand, but only with incentives, smaller lots and tighter inventory management.

The bigger story is that housing is delaying the next American lifecycle step. Research cited in the data links rising housing costs to lower fertility and later parenthood, reinforcing a broader macro pattern: fewer moves, later family formation and slower household creation. That matters because it restrains demand not just for homes, but for furniture, appliances, autos and a wide swath of consumer goods that depend on new household starts.

For investors, the trade is not to bet on a quick housing rebound. It is to position for a prolonged freeze that keeps equity concentrated with incumbents and extends the runway for rental demand, housing infrastructure, and selective builders with the best land and financing discipline. If Goldman is right, the most important housing bull market through 2027 may be in companies serving the households that still can’t buy.