Nvidia and Walmart in focus as futures rise

That backdrop helps explain why equities have been able to recover quickly from the July slide. Nasdaq 100 futures closed Thursday at 30,141.75 after rebounding from a July 29 low of 27,342, while the Dow Jones futures contract ended at 53,807, near the upper end of its recent range. The move has been accompanied by improving technical momentum: Nasdaq futures are above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 14-day RSI at 75.4, while Dow futures also sit comfortably above both trend lines, though with a less stretched RSI of 62.8.

Nvidia remains the key bellwether for the AI trade. The stock closed at $225.16, up sharply from $190.01 on July 29, and now sits above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The 14-day RSI of 75.4 suggests the shares are extended in the short term, but the broader trend remains intact as investors continue to treat Nvidia as the purest expression of AI capital spending. A sustained push higher would reinforce the view that the market’s leadership can remain concentrated in megacap growth even as rates stay elevated.

Walmart is a different kind of test. The stock at $115.27 is trading just below its recent technical ceiling and remains slightly under its 200-day moving average, but it has rebounded from a steep June-July slide that dragged it to $108.82. For investors, the retailer matters less as a momentum name than as a read on consumer resilience and defensive positioning. If Walmart can hold gains into earnings, it would suggest households are still spending enough to support staples and discounter shares even as credit costs and tariffs remain a drag on margins across retail.

The broader market message is that this is still a stock-pickers’ rally rather than a blanket risk-on move. SPY trade signals from Adalytica.com show neutral sentiment at 43 and awareness at 68, down sharply over the past week, while the PMI trend recession gauge sits in fear territory at 29, underscoring that investors remain cautious about the economic cycle even as they bid up large-cap equities. The dollar’s trade signals also point to weakness, with sentiment at 19, which can support multinational earnings but also reflects uncertainty around policy and growth.

For investors, the key question is whether a handful of leaders can carry the tape while rates stay near current levels. If Nvidia can extend and Walmart can deliver, the rally has a credible path higher because it would rest on both growth and defensive support. If they stall, the market may struggle to sustain the advance, especially with Treasury yields still high enough to pressure valuation multiples and with the broader macro picture offering only limited confirmation.