Poland 2026 GDP Seen Rising 3.7%, Inflation Near 3%

The macro backdrop is still doing the heavy lifting. A 3.7% expansion implies domestic demand should stay healthy enough to absorb softer external conditions in Europe, while inflation around 3% would keep pressure on the National Bank of Poland to avoid an aggressive response. Markets tend to favor that kind of setting: growth is strong enough to lift revenues and credit demand, but not so hot that it forces a sharp jump in borrowing costs. That is especially relevant for banks, which benefit from loan growth and improving asset quality when activity is firm and inflation stable.

The bond market signal is more nuanced. U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 10-year near 4.65%, underscoring that global rates are still restrictive by historical standards. That matters for Poland because local rates and the zloty do not trade in isolation; a benign inflation path would help limit imported price pressure and ease the burden of external financing. The dollar is also flashing strong momentum in Adalytica’s trade signals, which keeps a lid on broader emerging-market enthusiasm, even if Poland’s domestic fundamentals are improving.

The bull case is that Poland is entering a phase of moderate, durable expansion with inflation no longer the dominant macro risk. The bear case is that the forecast proves too optimistic if Europe slows, household consumption softens or wage growth keeps services inflation sticky. For investors, the key question is whether 2026 becomes a year of policy stability and multiple expansion, or whether the current optimism is already priced into Polish equities and local-currency assets.

What to watch next are revisions to growth and inflation expectations, the central bank’s response and whether earnings upgrades follow the macro outlook. If mBank’s call proves right, Poland could remain one of central and eastern Europe’s cleaner growth stories, with the main beneficiaries being domestic cyclicals and banks and the losers those betting on a harder inflation or rate backdrop.