Romania inflation expectations rise to 86.1%

That matters because inflation expectations can shape spending, saving and wage demands, feeding into the real economy even before official price data move. When consumers assume groceries, utilities and services will cost more in coming months, they often pull forward purchases, cut discretionary spending or press for higher pay, all of which can keep price pressure sticky.

Romania remains one of the European Union’s most inflation-prone economies, with August consumer prices running at 6.3%, far above the bloc average. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has already warned that Romania’s economy is set to contract in 2026 before recovering in 2027, citing persistent inflation and weaker purchasing power as key drags.

INSCOP said the September survey shows less a change in mood than a “normalization of economic uncertainty,” with households adapting to the idea that hardship will persist. That is a warning sign for policymakers because entrenched pessimism can slow consumption, a major driver of Romanian growth, even if headline inflation eventually eases.

For investors, the message is that domestic demand may stay under pressure, limiting upside for retailers, consumer lenders and other cyclical names tied to household spending. It also keeps the spotlight on the central bank and fiscal authorities, who face a difficult balance between supporting growth and containing prices.

The survey was conducted between Sept. 1 and Sept. 7 on a sample of 1,100 people, with a maximum margin of error of 2.95 percentage points. The full results are due to be presented on Wednesday in Bucharest.