Russia Lavrov Tehran Trip on Iran Oil Risk

That backdrop has helped keep energy prices elevated and volatility high across commodities. The United States Oil Fund, which tracks crude, rose to $162.67 on Oct. 22, up from $159.80 the previous day and well above its 50-day moving average of $145.58, with a 14-day RSI of 77.3, a level that typically points to overbought conditions. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund closed at $67.57, also near its recent highs and above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Gold has also been bid as investors look for protection from geopolitical shock. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF fell to $369.17 on Oct. 22 from $378.95 a day earlier, but it remains close to its recent trading range after a sharp year-long rally, underscoring continued demand for havens even as short-term price swings widen.

The stakes are broader than commodity prices. Any sustained disruption in Hormuz would tighten global fuel supplies, add to freight costs and complicate inflation forecasts just as central banks and governments remain sensitive to energy-driven price shocks. Russia, meanwhile, has an incentive to position itself as a stabilizing power while also preserving its own influence with Tehran and Gulf states.

For investors, the immediate read-through is to watch crude-linked assets, energy equities and safe-haven trades for more swings as diplomatic efforts unfold. The next catalyst will be whether Lavrov’s talks produce any concrete channel for restraint or whether the market keeps treating the conflict as a chronic risk rather than a one-off headline.