Taiwan Tensions Hit TSMC, Nvidia Stocks

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. fell 3.2% to $456.74 in the latest session, after touching a record high of $482.30 two days earlier. The stock remains well above its 50-day moving average of $430.71 and 200-day moving average of $389.26, but the pullback came with its RSI easing from an overbought 88 to 61.8, a sign traders are trimming exposure after the recent run-up.

Nvidia, whose business is also tied to Taiwan’s chip ecosystem, dropped 2.6% to $231.21, while Apple rose 0.6% to $338.60. Nvidia has repeatedly flagged export controls and geopolitical conflict as risks in regulatory filings, underscoring how Taiwan tensions can hit valuations even when direct revenue exposure is limited.

The market backdrop is already tense. Adalytica’s US–China Relations Sentiment gauge sits in “Fear” at 25, with awareness in “Extreme Fear,” while global stability sentiment has surged to “Extreme Greed,” suggesting investors are braced for bigger swings across risk assets if rhetoric hardens further.

Longer term, the issue is not just diplomacy but manufacturing concentration: Taiwan dominates advanced chip production, and any deterioration in US-China relations raises the premium on supply-chain diversification, defense spending and semiconductor self-sufficiency efforts in the US, China and Europe. The next catalyst is any official response from Beijing or Washington, as well as fresh export-control language that could affect chipmakers and AI hardware suppliers.