Trump Comments on Brazil Runoff and EWZ Slides

Trump told reporters he was “monitoring” the race and repeated earlier remarks calling Brazil a “very important” country and election. He had already praised the speed of Brazil’s vote count after the first round, while also reviving his criticism of the U.S. electoral system.

The backdrop is politically sensitive. In September, 10 Democratic lawmakers sent a letter to the State Department seeking explanations over U.S. sanctions on Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, contacts between U.S. officials and former President Jair Bolsonaro and statements that could be seen as questioning the integrity of Brazil’s election.

For investors, the issue is less about campaign rhetoric than about what it means for Brazil risk assets. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, EWZ, has been volatile: after trading as high as $42.59 on Oct. 23, it fell to $32.46 by Oct. 30, with the 14-day RSI dropping to 14.4, a deeply oversold reading, even as volume surged above 54 million shares. BRF has seen a similar slide, sinking to $12.96 from $20.19 on Oct. 23.

The moves suggest traders are quickly repricing Brazil exposure as the election narrative, U.S. political attention and broader global risk appetite collide. Any further comments from Trump, fresh signals from Washington or a disputed vote outcome could keep Brazilian equities and the real in focus in the days ahead.