Vannacci Movement Slips in Italian Polls

The reversal suggests Vannacci’s appeal may be narrower than first appeared. Pollsters say the movement drew in both disaffected non-voters and centre-right supporters attracted by its hardline stance on immigration and cultural issues, but that novelty has worn off. Antonio Noto of state broadcaster RAI said the party has struggled to broaden beyond security and culture-war themes, a problem for any protest movement trying to survive beyond an initial surge.

The internal strain is equally important. Local committees created to build the party have become a source of friction, with former activists accusing Vannacci of sidelining grassroots supporters. Some defectors say they expected a movement focused on practical local concerns such as healthcare and schools, not a politics built around deportations, attacks on LGBTQ rights and controversial comments about disabled students and femicide legislation. That disconnect raises doubts about whether the party can develop the organisational depth needed to turn poll numbers into durable electoral power.

For Meloni, the party’s weakness is a mixed development. A softer Vannacci could reduce pressure on her coalition from the right and limit vote fragmentation within the conservative camp. But if he fades without disappearing, his supporters may still remain politically available in a fragmented race, keeping pressure on the ruling bloc in a contest polls already show narrowing against the centre-left.

The broader picture is that Europe’s hard-right parties are proving more volatile than their recent advances suggested. Vannacci’s slide comes as similar movements elsewhere have shown signs of losing traction, underscoring how quickly insurgent parties can stall once the protest vote fades and the burden of a broader policy agenda arrives.

Vannacci’s next test is whether he can expand beyond identity politics and confrontation. If he cannot, the party risks becoming a short-lived protest vehicle rather than a lasting pillar of Italy’s right.