Wheat Exports Reopen Amid Black Sea Disruptions

Wheat futures in the U.S. are reflecting that pressure. The Teucrium Wheat Fund, a popular proxy for wheat prices, closed at $24.62 on July 28, up from $22.70 on July 8, while its 50-day moving average sits at $23.52 and RSI readings have climbed to 67.4, signaling a strong technical bid after a recent breakout. Corn, by contrast, has been far less volatile, with CORN ending at $18.08 on July 28, underscoring that wheat is the grain market’s main stress point.

For agribusiness investors, the policy shift is a tailwind for merchants and shippers tied to exportable wheat surpluses, especially in Turkey, where wheat and barley yields in Amasya have reportedly doubled to 614,000 tons and the sector is targeting a 5 million-ton export surplus via the Euphrates Canal. That should support trading volumes for grain handlers and logistics operators even as broader agricultural trade remains uneven.

Archer-Daniels-Midland and Bunge are among the companies exposed to those flows, with ADM shares trading at $83.18 on July 28 after a recent run-up and Bunge-backed broad grain merchandising activity likely to benefit if export corridors remain open. At the same time, food and grocery spending sentiment remains weak and CPI sentiment has plunged to “Extreme Fear” in Adalytica’s gauge, a reminder that food inflation remains a political and market risk if wheat costs stay elevated.

The bigger question now is whether July exports hit the weakest level since 2017, as some in the market fear, or whether resumed bread wheat shipments can offset the Black Sea shock and keep global supplies moving. Traders will be watching fresh export data, Black Sea security developments and any further phytosanitary or trade restrictions for the next cue.