Alternative data signal measuring market-implied expectations for upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions, synthesizing analyst commentary, press coverage, and futures-driven narratives.

Central bank communication cycles — FOMC meetings, minutes releases, and Chair speeches — can shift sentiment readings sharply within minutes. Divergences between the Sentiment and Awareness scores are particularly informative: elevated Awareness with flat Sentiment often signals a policy event is being absorbed, not yet resolved.

Key Drivers

• FOMC meeting statements and minutes
• Fed Chair speeches and congressional testimony
• Dot plot rate projections
• CPI and PCE inflation releases
• Non-farm payrolls and unemployment data

Reading the Policy Bias Scale

• 0–20Extremely Dovish. Coverage dominated by risk-aversion signals; narrative heavily skewed toward dovish conditions.
• 21–40Dovish. Below-neutral conditions with cautious market positioning; optimism subdued relative to the 30-day baseline.
• 41–60Neutral. Balanced coverage with no clear directional bias. Market is in a wait-and-see posture, awaiting a catalyst.
• 61–80Hawkish. Positive momentum building in the narrative; coverage tilting toward hawkish catalysts and upside scenarios.
• 81–100Extremely Hawkish. Elevated risk of mean-reversion. Watch for sentiment exhaustion signals and divergence from the Awareness score.

How to Use This Index

• Use the Policy Bias score to gauge the prevailing narrative bias for Market Expectations at a glance.
• The Awareness score flags unusual spikes in coverage — early-warning signals that often precede price moves.
• Extreme readings (0–20 or 80–100) historically mark periods of heightened volatility and potential reversals.
• Compare across related topics to find cross-asset divergences and correlation breakdowns.
• Pro subscribers can view 3 years of history to calibrate thresholds against past market regimes.

This index is frequently referenced alongside interest rate expectations, fed rate outlook, ai market sentiment, internet rate sentiment, alternative data rates — helping traders and analysts track Market Expectations policy bias shifts in real time.