Alternative data signal measuring perceived credibility of Federal Reserve inflation management, capturing public trust in institutional policy-making effectiveness amid price pressures.

Inflation sentiment is path-dependent: the same CPI print can read as bullish or bearish depending on prior expectations embedded in the narrative. Awareness spikes around CPI release dates are normal; sustained Awareness elevation between releases is the more informative signal.

Key Drivers

• CPI and PPI monthly prints
• PCE inflation data
• Fed 2% target credibility commentary
• Wage growth and labor cost data
• Breakeven inflation rates

Reading the Expectations Scale

• 0–20Deeply Anchored. Coverage dominated by risk-aversion signals; narrative heavily skewed toward anchored conditions.
• 21–40Anchored. Below-neutral conditions with cautious market positioning; optimism subdued relative to the 30-day baseline.
• 41–60Neutral. Balanced coverage with no clear directional bias. Market is in a wait-and-see posture, awaiting a catalyst.
• 61–80Elevated. Positive momentum building in the narrative; coverage tilting toward elevated catalysts and upside scenarios.
• 81–100Runaway. Elevated risk of mean-reversion. Watch for sentiment exhaustion signals and divergence from the Awareness score.

How to Use This Index

• Use the Expectations score to gauge the prevailing narrative bias for Policy Credibility Sentiment at a glance.
• The Awareness score flags unusual spikes in coverage — early-warning signals that often precede price moves.
• Extreme readings (0–20 or 80–100) historically mark periods of heightened volatility and potential reversals.
• Compare across related topics to find cross-asset divergences and correlation breakdowns.
• Pro subscribers can view 3 years of history to calibrate thresholds against past market regimes.

This index is frequently referenced alongside fed credibility, central bank trust, ai policy sentiment, internet fed sentiment, alternative data central banking — helping traders and analysts track Policy Credibility Sentiment expectations shifts in real time.